Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 200310
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 UTC Mon Aug 20 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC. 

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave has an axis from 06n90w to 20n90w, moving W 
around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is noted from 05n to 11n between 83w and 96w.

A tropical wave has an axis from 05n111w to 17n111w, moving W 
between 10 and 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 
06n to 08n between 106w and 116w.

A tropical wave has an axis from 02n130w to 16n128w, moving W 
around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is noted from 13n to 17n between 119w and 127w.

   
...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08n78w to 07n100w to 10n120w to 
10n124w. The ITCZ resumes from 09n127w to 10n140w. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04n 
east of 83w. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05n to 
08n between 92w and 101w. Scattered moderate convection was 
noted from 07n to 11n between 135w and 140w. 

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

Surface ridging enters the forecast waters near 32n134w, then 
extends se to near the revillagigedo islands. This feature will 
support gentle to moderate NW winds through Tue. The ridge will 
weaken slightly during the middle of the week, which will help to
winds to slacken to between light and gentle late Tue and Wed. 
The ridge will then rebuild Thu, bringing a slight increase to 
the winds Thu and Fri.

Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain a light
wind regime over the Gulf of California through Fri night.

Strong N to NE gap winds will start over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Tue night before diminishing Thu night.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

The monsoon trough will linger near 09n during the next few 
days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be 
light to moderate. The only exception is over the Gulf of 
papagayo, where winds will pulse to between fresh each night.
Winds could be locally strong, except for Mon night, when strong
winds are expected to affect the area from 10.5n to 11.5n E of
88w.

Remainder of the area...   

Hurricane Lane continues moving farther away into the central
Pacific. The only lingering affects of Lane on the forecast area
are seas to 9 ft in mixed swell for the waters from 14n to 20n 
west of 138w. This area of seas will subside below 8 ft Monday
morning.

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between ridging across the 
northern waters and the ITCZ will support gentle to moderate 
trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell N of the ITCZ and W of 120w
through the middle of this week.

Sea heights will be relatively low for most of the forecast area
this week. Mixed se and SW swell will cause seas S of 02s and W 
of 112w to briefly build to 8 ft Mon morning through Tue morning.
A much more robust round of long period swell could arrive from 
the southern hemisphere toward the end of this week and cause 
seas near the Equator to begin building on Sat.

  
$$
Cam


		
		

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