Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 192348

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.

...Special features...

....Atlantic Gale Warning...

A stationary front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure centered 
near 29n67w across the NW Bahamas and through The Straits of 
Florida. The front will meander through Wed as a second low 
pressure center develops along it near 27.5n74w tonight, and moves
NE and deepens through Thu. Strong to gale-force winds are 
expected across the northwest semicircle of this low by Wednesday
morning through Wednesday night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the 
AWIPS/WMO header miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc or the website 
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml, for more details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10n14w 
to 01n21w. The ITCZ continues from 01n21w to the coast of Brazil 
near 03s41w. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 
03n-02s between 25w-31w. Scattered showers are noted along and
south of these boundaries mainly east of 25w. 

Gulf of Mexico...

A stationary front extends westward from The Straits of Florida 
near 25n80w to a 1013 mb low near 23n86w to a 1014 mb low near 
19n92w. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 
A surface trough is noted in scatterometer data behind the front
from 26n82w to 23n92w. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
northerly winds north of the trough over the eastern half of the
basin. Another trough is analyzed over the northwest Gulf from 
28n96w to 24n95w with scattered showers. An upper level trough 
extends into the western Gulf of Mexico with upper level 
diffluence east of the wave axis enhancing convection particularly
in the eastern Gulf.  

Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds are expected to be within
about 90 nm NW of the low/front. The front and low will shift slowly 
se across the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba tonight through Thu and
weaken as high pressure builds across the NW Gulf. High pressure 
will then dominate the Gulf region through Sat.

Caribbean Sea... 

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the southern half of the
basin, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The low/front
currently over the Yucatan Channel are enhancing scattered showers
across the far northwest Caribbean affecting western Cuba and
adjacent waters. Low-topped showers are moving quickly west with 
the trades across the Greater Antilles. An upper level ridge 
continues to sit over the Caribbean, providing strong subsidence 
that is suppressing significant convection. 

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean through Wednesday night, then expect moderate 
to fresh winds afterwards. An old frontal boundary across the 
Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida will sink south into the
northwest Caribbean tonight and gradually stall and dissipate 
from northeast coast of Honduras to east Cuba Thursday night. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the
basin through Sat.

Atlantic Ocean...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details. A 1015 mb surface low is centered 
over the western Atlantic near 30n67w, with a stationary front 
extending southwest of the low to 25n80w. Scattered showers are
noted along and northwest of the front. Meanwhile, a 1023 mb high
is centered over the central Atlantic near 28n50w with ridging 
extending across the Atlantic waters and into the northeast 
Caribbean. Southwest of this feature, a surface trough extends 
from 25n36w to 17n46w. Surface ridging prevails across the 
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered north 
of the area near 43n20w.

The stationary front will meander through Wednesday as a second 
low pressure center develops along it near 27.5n74w tonight, and 
moves northeast and deepens through Thursday. Strong to gale- 
force winds are expected across the NW semicircle of the low 
center on Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds are also expected 
behind the frontal boundary. NE swell behind these features will 
propagate mainly across the waters north of 27n through at least 
Thursday. A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern 
waters Thursday morning through Friday and then stall from 25n65w
to the approaches of the Windward Passage on Saturday morning.

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