Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 190600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/190600z-200600zoct2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 19.2n
152.9e, is now located near 20.8n 153.6e, approximately 676 nm
northeast of Guam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts
a poorly-organized low level circulation (llc) with scattered
convection. A 190301z gpm 89ghz microwave image shows a similar
picture, a very disorganized circulation and scattered deep
convection. Upper analysis indicates moderate (15-20 knot) vertical
wind shear with excellent poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures
(29-30 celsius) in the surrounding area are supportive for future
development. A recent ascat pass reveals a large swath of 20-25 knot
gradient induced winds located in the northern semi-Circle. Models
indicate the system will consolidate into a subtropical low as it
rounds the subtropical ridge axis and tracks northeastward over the
next 36-48 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at
10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near
1010 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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