U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus02 kwns 231723 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 231722 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 


Valid 241200z - 251200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
only isolated thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday across the 
western/central Gulf Coast region, and severe weather appears 
unlikely. 


..synopsis and discussion... 
A large area of precipitation is forecast across much of the 
Southern Plains into the lower MS valley on Wednesday downstream of 
a northeastward-moving upper trough. Weak elevated instability 
should be present along and close to the Texas/la coast as modest 
low-level warm air advection occurs. This may support isolated 
thunderstorms across this region through the period. Most guidance 
suggests a weak surface low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico 
will remain just offshore through early Thursday morning. A warm 
front associated with this low will develop slowly northward across 
the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. While 
near-surface-based storms cannot be entirely ruled out along the 
immediate coast of far southeastern la the last couple of hours of 
the period, the potential for the warm front to move appreciably 
inland appears too low to include any probabilities for severe 
thunderstorms. 


A couple of lightning strikes may also occur over western/central Colorado 
Wednesday afternoon, but large-scale ascent behind the upper trough 
will be minimal. This will likely limit the lightning coverage to 
less than the 10% threshold needed for a general thunder area. 


..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 


.Gleason.. 10/23/2018 


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