- Day Three
acus02 kwns 231723
Storm Prediction Center ac 231722
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Valid 241200z - 251200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
only isolated thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday across the
western/central Gulf Coast region, and severe weather appears
..synopsis and discussion...
A large area of precipitation is forecast across much of the
Southern Plains into the lower MS valley on Wednesday downstream of
a northeastward-moving upper trough. Weak elevated instability
should be present along and close to the Texas/la coast as modest
low-level warm air advection occurs. This may support isolated
thunderstorms across this region through the period. Most guidance
suggests a weak surface low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
will remain just offshore through early Thursday morning. A warm
front associated with this low will develop slowly northward across
the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. While
near-surface-based storms cannot be entirely ruled out along the
immediate coast of far southeastern la the last couple of hours of
the period, the potential for the warm front to move appreciably
inland appears too low to include any probabilities for severe
A couple of lightning strikes may also occur over western/central Colorado
Wednesday afternoon, but large-scale ascent behind the upper trough
will be minimal. This will likely limit the lightning coverage to
less than the 10% threshold needed for a general thunder area.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: <5% - none
hail: <5% - none