U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 161722 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1122 am CST Sat Feb 16 2019 


Valid 171200z - 181200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United 
States on Sunday. 


..synopsis and discussion... 
A large-scale, positively tilted upper trough will persist over much 
of the Continental U.S. On Sunday. A couple elevated thunderstorms may occur 
early in the period across parts of the Tennessee Valley into the 
Appalachians as low-level warm air advection strengthens ahead of a 
weak mid-level impulse moving northeastward from the mid MS valley 
into the Ohio Valley. Very weak instability will preclude a severe 
threat across this region. Other thunderstorms may form along a 
southeastward-moving cold front across parts of the southeast 
through the day, although coverage should remain isolated at best 
due to negligible large-scale ascent with neutral to slightly rising 
mid-level height tendencies. Farther west, very isolated lightning 
strikes may occur across portions of coastal northern/central California 
with cold mid-level temperatures beneath an upper trough. The 
Prospect for thunderstorms farther east across the Great Basin and 
lower Colorado River valley currently appears too limited for a general 
thunderstorm area. 


..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 


.Gleason.. 02/16/2019 


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