- Day Three
acus02 kwns 161723
Storm Prediction Center ac 161722
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 am CST Sat Feb 16 2019
Valid 171200z - 181200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Sunday.
..synopsis and discussion...
A large-scale, positively tilted upper trough will persist over much
of the Continental U.S. On Sunday. A couple elevated thunderstorms may occur
early in the period across parts of the Tennessee Valley into the
Appalachians as low-level warm air advection strengthens ahead of a
weak mid-level impulse moving northeastward from the mid MS valley
into the Ohio Valley. Very weak instability will preclude a severe
threat across this region. Other thunderstorms may form along a
southeastward-moving cold front across parts of the southeast
through the day, although coverage should remain isolated at best
due to negligible large-scale ascent with neutral to slightly rising
mid-level height tendencies. Farther west, very isolated lightning
strikes may occur across portions of coastal northern/central California
with cold mid-level temperatures beneath an upper trough. The
Prospect for thunderstorms farther east across the Great Basin and
lower Colorado River valley currently appears too limited for a general
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: <5% - none
hail: <5% - none