- Day Three
acus03 kwns 230712
Storm Prediction Center ac 230711
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 am CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Valid 251200z - 261200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the central/eastern Gulf
Coast on Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
Weakly cyclonic flow aloft will overspread areas from the central
Gulf Coast eastward on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude impulse will
initially cross the region during the day, and an initial surge of
warm-air advection may yield enough elevated buoyancy for a few
thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle. Behind this initial impulse, a secondary, more amplified
shortwave trough will approach the southeastern US Thursday night.
Strengthening southwesterly 850mb flow and isentropic ascent may
yield isolated thunderstorms farther east across the Florida
Peninsula and portions of southern Georgia.
Through the period, expansive precipitation across inland areas and
a lack of stronger large-scale ascent near the coast should preclude
significant poleward return of surface Theta-E, limiting
surface-based destabilization. In turn, severe weather is not
forecast, despite strengthening wind fields.