U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus01 kwns 241628 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 241626 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1126 am CDT sun Mar 24 2019 


Valid 241630z - 251200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon 
and evening over parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and arklatex 
regions.... 


... 
Severe thunderstorms are expected from North Texas to southern 
Missouri and southwestern Illinois, mainly offering hail and 
damaging gusts. 


... 
Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive upper low over 
southeast NE, with an associated mid-level speed Max over KS/OK. 
This feature will track eastward today into the middle MS valley, 
providing increasing ascent and deep-layer vertical shear for 
thunderstorm development/organization. Visible imagery shows 
substantial clearing/heating is occurring across southern MO and 
southwest IL, where surface dewpoints are rising into the 50s and 
low level lapse rates are steepening. This should aid in the 
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon across 
southern MO. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for 
discrete supercells capable of large hail. The tornado risk will be 
limited by veering low level winds and rather low dewpoint values. 
However, the damaging wind threat should increase as storms track 
eastward into southern Illinois during the late afternoon. Have added an 
enh risk area for hail coverage across parts of southeast MO and 
southwest IL, where 12z cam solutions provide greatest confidence. 


..arklatex region... 
Latest surface analysis shows a weak warm front extending from 
southeast OK into southern Arkansas. The air mass south of this front is 
relatively moist and moderately unstable with dewpoints near 60f. 
Models are consistent in the development of scattered intense storms 
this afternoon, with supercells capable of hail expected. This 
activity is likely to organize into a more linear structure through 
the evening, but continue to pose a risk of hail along with locally 
damaging winds. Activity may remain strong well into the night, 
affecting southeast Arkansas/northeast la and western MS. Similar to 
northern area, parameters and confidence support inclusion of enh 
risk area for afternoon/evening hail risk. 


.Hart/Gleason.. 03/24/2019 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 240110 
okz000-txz000-240315- 


Mesoscale discussion 0230 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0810 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019 


Areas affected...central/southern Oklahoma 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31... 


Valid 240110z - 240315z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31 
continues. 


Summary...severe threat continues for ww31 with large hail, strong 
wind gusts, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado possible. 


Discussion...multiple severe thunderstorms are moving east/northeast 
across central/southern Oklahoma. There remains a corridor east of 
the dryline to approximately a line stretching from Tulsa to the Red 
River where storms will remain surface-based. Effective bulk shear 
of 40-50 knots and 250-800 j/kg of MLCAPE are within this warm 
sector according to mesoanalysis. While the severe threat will begin 
to diminish later this evening, established severe storms could 
still produce large hail even as storms become elevated. While 
strong wind gusts and a brief/weak tornado are possible, large hail 
continues to be the primary severe threat during the next couple of 
hours. A watch extension is unlikely at this time given the marginal 
severe environment east of the watch and beyond expiration time. 


.Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/24/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...tsa...fwd...oun... 


Latitude...Lon 34119562 33769677 33499704 33009756 32669788 32629802 
32579835 32779862 32979874 33259868 33649852 33949838 
34319822 34759814 35249808 35869777 36139756 36189707 
36199663 36169622 36129594 35899581 35569569 35059563 
34449563 34119562