marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 117 am PST Tue Feb 19 2019
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
High pressure will persist to the west of the region as a thermal trough strengthens along the California coast. Latest NCEP weather map has a weak trough along the California coast while high pressure 1042 mb is centered near 42n147w with its ridge extending northeast into the northern waters while the other ridge extends southeast and its axis lies just west of the southern waters. Pressure gradient is fairly relaxed but slightly tight over the central waters over the region directly between the trough and high pressure center.
Global models GFS/CMC/ukmethr/ecmwfhr have initialized fairly well the latest synoptic observations. The models also agree well on the position and central pressure value of high pressure to the west. Models just differ within 1 mb on the central pressure value in the extended period. Otherwise, models are generally in a good agreement through the period and so will just stay with GFS.
.Seas...Have a peak at 14 ft over the southern waters and they range between 9 and 12 ft over the central and southern waters where they range between 7 and 9 ft over the northern waters. Nww3 fits well the observed seas pattern and has been quite consistent in the previous runs. Ecmwfwave model also fits well the observed seas pattern and both wave models have a good agreement in the short term on initially subsiding seas over the southern waters and then start to build seas over the northern waters. Will stay with nww3 for seas.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...No significant storm Sage is forecast through the forecast period.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz900...outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Wednesday. Gale possible Friday night.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster musonda. Ocean prediction center.