marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 726 PM PDT Sat Oct 20 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The 00z surface analysis indicated along the California coast extending north to the southern Washington coast. High pressure ridge extended across the Washington and Oregon waters and south just west of the California waters. The 18z GFS and NAM indicated no big changes from the previous 12z runs, and since current wind grids are based on GFS will not be making any changes. The 18z GFS is also similar with the timing of the cold front Monday and Monday night, and current warning headlines still look good. The 00z sea state analysis showed that the current observations match up well with the enp forecast values.
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A high pressure ridge currently west of the offshore waters is combining with a low pressure trof along the West Coast of the U.S. To produce northerly winds up to 25 knots off the coasts of northern California and southern Oregon. These conditions will slowly diminish today and tonight and by early Sunday mainly light winds are expected across most of the offshore waters. One cold front is expected to move across the pz5 waters Monday night and Tuesday, followed by another front Wednesday night. Both of these fronts should be strong enough to produce some minimal gales across the far northwest portion of the pz5 waters. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF look to be in reasonable agreement across the eastern Pacific through early Thursday. After Thursday the GFS builds a stronger ridge across the pz5 waters than the ECMWF. The UKMET is closer to the GFS solution so will lean more towards the GFS. For wind grids will use the GFS throughout with some minor edits. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.
For wave height grids will also use the enp version of the wavewatch throughout the forecast period.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz900...outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Monday night. Gale possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster kosier/nolt. Ocean prediction center.